面前，好意思国政府但愿通过脱钩封杀中国高技术逼中国就范。然而，脱钩毕竟是兰艾俱焚的大事。好意思国还莫得作念好十足脱钩的准备爱卡汽车论坛新皇冠，中国也不念念走上对抗的说念路。在好意思版知乎Quora上，好意思国网友问：若是好意思国和中国透顶脱钩、断交关系，中国不错撑多久？咱们望望列国网友的不雅点。

外洋网友萨基姆的回话

The United States is clamoring to sever all relations with China, as if without the United States, China could do nothing. So ridiculous! These words sound more like the groans of a terminally ill person struggling, or the dreams of a drunken man.

好意思国叫嚣要断交与中国的一切关系，好像莫得好意思国，中国什么齐作念不了，这样好笑!这些话听起来更像是一个身患绝症的东说念主叛逆的呻吟，或是一个醉汉的梦话。

Firstly, international relations are not a "small circle" issue among children. From a common sense perspective, the United States cannot completely sever its relationship with China. Even if the United States really intends to do so, to what extent can the two countries decouple? The relationship between Russia and the United States is so bad that they have not severed all ties. In contrast, China and the United States are much closer.

首先，国际关系不是儿童之间的“小圈子”游戏。从学问上讲，好意思国不行能十足断交与中国的关系。即使好意思国确切谋划这样作念，两国能在多猛进度上脱钩?俄罗斯和好意思国之间的关系如斯倒霉，他们也莫得断交通盘关连。比较之下，中国和好意思国要亲密得多。

From an economic perspective, the trade volume between China and the United States in 2022 was 759.427 billion US dollars, a record set during the ongoing trade war. Sino US trade saves an average of $850 per American household per year. In terms of personnel exchanges, before the outbreak of the epidemic, the number of personnel exchanges between China and the United States reached 5 million annually, with an average of 17000 people traveling between China and the United States every day. A flight takes off and lands every 17 minutes. Not to mention the large number of students and tourists traveling between China and the United States. Do you think all of this will disappear one day?

从经济上看，2022年中好意思生意额为7594.27亿好意思元，这是在生意战握续进行的情况下创下的记载。中好意思生意为每个好意思国度庭平均每年检朴850好意思元。在东说念主员交游方面，疫情爆发前，每年中好意思之间的东说念主员交游达到500万东说念主次，平均每天有1.7万东说念主交游于中好意思之间，每17分钟就有一架航班起降。更无谓说在中好意思之间交游的无数学生和搭客了。你以为有一天这一切齐会隐匿吗?

From another perspective, I would like to know more about how long it can last if the United States severs all ties with China? Under the impact of the COVID-19, the highly globalized industrial chain appears fragile. As the most populous country in the world, China has an extremely large domestic market and a complete industrial chain. China was the only country to achieve economic growth during the pandemic, which fully reflects the resilience and resilience of the Chinese economy.

从另一个角度来看，我更念念知说念，若是好意思国堵截与中国的通盘关连，它能保管多久?在新冠肺炎疫情冲击下，高度全球化的产业链显得脆弱，而中国手脚天下上东说念主口最多的国度，领有极其弘大的国内市集和竣工的产业链。中国事疫情时代独一竣事经济增长的国度，这充分体现了中国经济的韧性和弹性。

For the United States, once it loses a major customer like China, it will be difficult to make up for it. For example, before the United States blacklisted Huawei China, Huawei placed nearly $12 billion in annual orders with American companies and is expected to purchase over $20 billion in goods from American companies by 2020, but all of this has been erased by restrictions imposed by the US government. Therefore, the US government's trade ban on Huawei has actually caused significant economic losses to American companies.

对好意思国来说，一朝失去像中国这样的大客户，将很难弥补。举例，在好意思国将中国华为列入黑名单之前，华为每年向好意思国公司下近120亿好意思元的订单，原本到2020年不错从好意思国公司购买首先200亿好意思元的商品，但这一切齐被好意思国政府的轨则抹去了。因此，好意思国政府对华为的生意禁令本色上给好意思国企业形成了巨大的经济失掉。

The current international trade system is no longer the pattern of the US Soviet Cold War, and it is unrealistic to deviate from the development of globalization. If the United States intends to completely sever its ties with China, it means it is gradually falling into a cocoon of ignorance. In short, decoupling from China is not the solution to the US dilemma. Cooperation between the two countries is the best path.

刻下的国际生意体制不再是好意思苏冷战时期的款式，要脱离全球化的发展是不实践的。若是好意思国谋划透顶断交与中国的关连，那就意味着它徐徐堕入了无知的茧中。简而言之，与中国“脱钩”并不是处罚好意思国逆境的目标。两国相助是最佳的说念路。

英国约瑟夫•肖的回话

根据NBA新规，此次事件莫兰特被禁赛25场，意味着他无缘参与2023-24赛季的所有评选奖项，而且在这25场禁赛中，他没有一分钱薪水入账，损失高达760万美元。加上3月份持枪事件被禁赛8场，薪资损失高达3900万美元，因此，莫兰特两次持枪不当行为，让他在薪水方面就损失了近5000万美元。除此之外，他更是无缘最佳阵容以及MVP等多项评选。

Perhaps this question should be said as follows: If China completely cuts off its ties with the United States, how long can Americans continue to do so?

也许，这个问题应该这样说:若是中国十足堵截与好意思国的关连，好意思国东说念主还能保管多久?

Because, as analyzed by AXIOS, Trump's trade war with China is a failure in any aspect. A report from the Oxford Institute of Economics supports his analysis, with some excerpts as follows:

因为，正如AXIOS的分析所说，特朗普对中国的生意战在职何方面齐是失败的。牛津经济接洽院的一份文牍支握了他的分析，以下是部分节选:

The United States benefits from trade and investment flows with China. The combination of bilateral trade, investment, and supply chain integration supports economic growth, consumer choices, and job creation. In 2019, exports to China provided 1.2 million jobs to the United States, and as of 2019, Chinese multinational corporations directly employed 197000 people in the United States.

好意思国从与中国的生意和投资流动中受益。双边生意、投资和供应链一体化的调处支握了经济增长、消耗者接收和行状创业。2019年，对华出口为好意思国提供了120万个行状岗亭，轨则2019年，中国跨国公司在好意思国班师雇佣了19.7万东说念主。

In 2019, American companies invested $105 billion in China, and the profits generated from these investments and their contribution to the competitiveness of American companies supported the US economy through research and development, domestic investment, and dividend payments. It is expected that China will drive about one-third of global economic growth in the next decade, and maintaining access to the Chinese market is becoming increasingly important for American companies to succeed globally.

2019年，好意思国企业在华投资1050亿好意思元，这些投资带来的利润偏激对好意思国企业竞争力的孝敬，通过研发、国内投资和股息支付，为好意思国经济提供了撑握。瞻望中国将在将来十年鼓吹全球经济增长的三分之一傍边，保握参预中国的市集对好意思国企业在全球取得到手越来越要紧。

The trade war with China has damaged the US economy and failed to achieve the main policy goals outlined by the Trump administration. Not only did it not bring benefits to the economy, but it also reduced economic growth and employment in the United States, resulting in an estimated maximum loss of 245000 jobs. Despite the first phase of the trade agreement reached between the two countries in early 2020, tariff rates remain at their highest levels in decades.

•与中国的生意战挫伤了好意思国经济，未能竣事好意思国政府详细的主要计谋方针。它不仅莫得给经济带来公正，反而镌汰了好意思国的经济增长和行状，导致推测最高失掉24.5万个作事岗亭。尽管两国在2020年头达成了第一阶段生意协定，但关税税率仍处于数十年来的高位。

Lowering tariffs may benefit the US economy and create job opportunities. Even a moderate reduction in tariffs may promote economic growth and stimulate employment growth. In our trade war downgrade scenario, the two governments are gradually reducing the average tariff rate to around 12% (currently around 19%), and the US economy will increase its real GDP by $160 billion over the next five years, adding 145000 jobs by 2025. Due to the increase in employment and income, as well as the decrease in prices, the income of each American household will increase by $460.

镌汰关税可能成心于好意思国经济并创造行状契机。即使是关税的戒指回落也可能促进经济增长并刺激行状增长。在咱们的生意战左迁现象下，两国政府徐徐将平均关税税率降至12%傍边(面前约为19%)，好意思国经济在将来5年本色GDP将增多1600亿好意思元，到2025年将增多14.5万行状岗亭。由于行状和收入的增多以及价钱的下落，每户好意思国度庭的收入将增多460好意思元。

The escalating trade tensions and severe decoupling from China will further damage the US economy and reduce employment. According to our scenario of escalating and decoupling trade wars, the real GDP of the United States will decrease by $1.6 trillion over the next five years, with 732000 job losses in 2022 and 320000 job losses in 2025. In addition to significant short-term impacts on economic output, the long-term impact will permanently reduce GDP, reflecting a decline in economic productivity. By the end of 2025, American households will lose approximately $6400 in real income.

•不休升级的生意弥留方位和与中国的严重脱钩将进一步挫伤好意思国经济，并减少行状。把柄咱们的生意战升级和脱钩现象，将来5年好意思国本色GDP将减少1.6万亿好意思元，2022年行状岗亭将减少73.2万个，2025年行状岗亭将减少32万个。除了短期内对经济产出的要紧冲击外，耐久影响将永久性地镌汰GDP，响应出经济坐褥率的下落。到2025年底，好意思国度庭本色收入将损违约6400好意思元。

Last November, China announced a record $75.43 billion trade surplus, driven by an unexpected 21.1% year-on-year surge in exports. The fastest growing is exports to the United States, which increased by 46.1% to $51.98 billion, also setting a record

前年11月，中国公布了创记载的754.3亿好意思元的生意顺差，这是受出口同比不测飙升21.1%的鼓吹。增长最快的是对好意思国的出口，增长了46.1%，达到519.8亿好意思元，也创下了记载。”

The Port of Los Angeles is the largest container cargo handling yard in the United States and the gateway to many Chinese goods. Here, containers carrying Chinese imported goods are stacked together like six story Lego blocks. Truck drivers crowded the parking lot, waiting for a few hours to pick up the goods and then transport them to various parts of the European continent.

洛杉矶港是好意思国最大的集装箱货品处理场，亦然许多中国商品的派系。在这里，装载中国入口商品的集装箱像六层高的乐高积木一样堆叠在一齐。卡车司机挤满了泊车场，恭候几个小时来取货，然后将货品运往欧洲大陆各地。

October was the busiest month in the port's 114 year history, and traffic remained high. Gene Seroka, the executive director of the port, said that on December 1st, dock workers were busy unloading 19 ships, while under normal circumstances, 10 to 12 ships were unloaded daily. He said that there are still 12 ships waiting at the port, and on average, these ships waited for about 48 hours after their scheduled arrival.

10月是该口岸114年历史上最忙绿的一个月，交通量仍然很高。该口岸的履行董事Gene Seroka说，12月1日，船埠工东说念主忙着卸载19艘船，而平常情况下每天卸载10到12艘船。他说，还有12艘船在口岸恭候，这些船平均在预定到达后恭候了梗概48小时。

Seroka said that we are going through a truly unprecedented period. You want to stuff 10 pounds of potatoes into a 5-pound bag. This order and replenishment scale is the largest we have ever seen, and it happens to be a holiday

Seroka说，咱们正在阅历一个的确前所未有的时期。“你念念把10磅土豆塞进一个5磅重的袋子里。这种订货和补充的边界是咱们见过有史以来最大的，况兼当今恰逢假期。”

In the first two months of this year, China US trade increased by 81.3% year-on-year, reaching 109.8 billion US dollars, which is the fastest growing among all regions, including the European Union and ASEAN. During this period, China's exports to the United States increased by 87.3%, second only to New Zealand, and New Zealand's imports from China increased by 89.2%.

本年前两个月，中好意思生意同比增长81.3%，达到1098亿好意思元，是包括欧盟和东盟在内的通盘地区中增长最快的。在此时代，中国对好意思国的出口增长了87.3%，仅次于新西兰，新西兰从中国的入口增长了89.2%。

Tian Yun, Vice President of the Beijing Economic Operations Association and former economist at the National Economic Planning Agency, stated that the high growth rate reflects the rapid growth in demand after the US economic recovery and stimulus policies.

北京经济运行协会副会长、前国度经济磋磨机构经济学家田云端示，高增长率响应了好意思国经济复苏和刺激计谋后需求的赶紧增长。

外洋网友布雷恩的回话

During the embargo period dominated by the United States, China has survived for more than 30 years. It has trade relations with only a few countries, and none of them is a Economic power. Today, China has political and economic connections with countries around the world. Some people estimate that China produces 40% of the total global consumption of goods. The latest final data on China's exports shows that exports to the United States only account for 19%. In addition, please remember that China also provides most of the components and raw materials to the countries that manufacture the final product.

在好意思国主导的禁运时期，中国存活了30多年，只与少数几个国度有生意关系，况兼莫得一个是经济大国。今天的中国与全球列国齐有政事和经济关连。一些东说念主推测，中国坐褥的商品占全球消耗总量的40%。中国出口的最新最终数据清爽，对好意思出口只占19%。此外，请记着，中国还向制造最终居品的国度提供大部分零部件和原料。

More importantly, since most consumer goods come from China, and many of the components used for final product assembly also come from China, can the United States survive cutting off imports? Many economic sectors will collapse and need to be rebuilt from scratch. The main and most obvious will be wholesalers and retailers. Many well-known brands, such as Wal Mart and Target, as well as the whole wholesale and supply chain, will disappear or regenerate for those enterprises with sufficient financial resources.

更要紧的是，由于大多数消耗品来自中国，况兼许多用于最终居品拼装的零部件也来自中国，好意思国能否在堵截入口后幸存下来?许多经济部门将崩溃，需要从新启动重建。主要的和最彰着的将是批发商和零卖商。许多闻名品牌，如沃尔玛(Walmart)、塔吉特(Target)等，以及通盘批发和供应链，关于那些财力敷裕淳朴的企业来说，将会隐匿或荣达。

American consumers will see political inflation leading to soaring prices. Many people will directly fall into poverty. After all, when the main supply of a consumer economy is cut off and there are often no alternative sources for a long period of time, this is the expected result. Some companies, such as Intel, Qualcomm, and Boeing, generate 30% or more of their revenue from China. Think about how they will weather such a crisis safely.

好意思国消耗者将看到政事激励的通货膨大导致物价飞涨。许多东说念主将班师堕入清寒。毕竟，当一个消耗经济体的主要供应被堵截，况兼在很长一段时辰内连接莫得替代开首时，这即是预期的成果。一些公司，如英特尔、高通和波音，从中国取得了30%或更多的收入。念念念念看，他们将怎样安心渡过这样一场危急。

So, for everyone's happiness, please let go of these childish ideas. We all benefit from cooperation rather than confrontation.

是以，为了全球的幸福，请放下这些稚童的念念法。咱们齐受益于相助而不是对抗。

理查德•查克的回话

皇冠hg86a

In the past, 70% of goods in international trade were manufactured goods, and now 70% are semi-finished products. Many people believe that this makes China, which is dominated by the manufacturing industry, more susceptible to the impact of raw materials and market cuts. But the fact is exactly the opposite.

畴昔国际生意中70%的货品是制制品，当今70%是半制品。有好多东说念主认为，这使得以制造业为主导的中国更容易受到原材料和市集削减的影响。可事实正巧相悖。

The first mistake was overestimating the reliability of the US dollar. People use dollars in the international market because they can purchase goods in dollars. If China, as an important participant in international trade, no longer uses the US dollar for settlement, then people will undoubtedly increase their demand for the euro and reduce their demand for the US dollar. The significant depreciation of the US dollar will ignite the debt problem of the US government and trigger a fiscal crisis. When everyone is rushing to sell dollar denominated assets, it will be the end of the US economy. The key to the problem lies in the US fiscal dependence on debt.

第一个纰谬是高估了好意思元的可靠性。东说念主们在国际市集上使用好意思元，因为他们不错用好意思元购买商品。若是中国手脚国际生意的要紧参与者，不再使用好意思元进行结算，那么东说念主们无疑会增多对欧元的需求，减少对好意思元的需求。好意思元大幅贬值将烽火好意思国政府的债务问题，激励财政危急。当通盘东说念主齐争相抛售好意思元计价财富时，这将是好意思国经济的末日。问题的要津在于好意思国财政对债务的依赖。

The second mistake is overestimating the affordability of American citizens. Due to the loss of the US market, Chinese people will lose some of their jobs. However, most Chinese people can return to labor-intensive industries that are about to disappear, and household savings will ensure a short-term quality of life. For heavily indebted American families, this will be a disaster. In this epidemic, even though the government paid people's living bills, there was still a huge riot in the United States.

第二个纰谬是高估了好意思国公民的作事才能。由于失去好意思国市集，中国东说念主将失去一部单干作。然而，大多数中国东说念主不错追想那些行将隐匿的工作密集型产业，家庭储蓄将确保短时辰内的生计质料。关于欠债累累的好意思国度庭来说，这将是一场苦难。在这场疫情中，即使政府支付了东说念主们的生计账单，好意思国仍然发生了巨大的骚乱。

The third mistake is underestimating China's potential. Comparing the economic growth rates of the two countries, it can be found that China still has a lot of room for growth, while the United States does not. The contribution rate of China's economic growth to world economic growth exceeds one-third, and may reach over half this year. As an investor, the Chinese market is far more attractive than the United States. Never test the loyalty of capital. The capital trapped in developed markets will lead to increasingly intensified conflicts between the United States and its allies.

第三个纰谬是低估了中国的后劲。对比两国的经济增长率不错发现，中国仍有很大的增漫空间，而好意思国则莫得。中国经济增长对天下经济增长的孝敬率首先三分之一，本年可能达到一半以上。手脚投资者，中国市集远媲好意思国更具眩惑力。恒久不要试探老本的至心。而被困在发扬市集的老本将导致好意思国与其盟友之间的破损日益加重。

The fourth mistake is underestimating the importance of China in the world economy. More semi-finished product trade will actually help China dominate the world economy. The key to the problem lies in scale. For upstream companies, China is the decisive buyer due to its market size. For downstream enterprises, China is also the decisive seller due to its production scale. That's why when China stopped its economic activities due to the epidemic, countries that were not affected by the epidemic also began to suspend work. Upstream enterprises shut down due to a lack of orders, while downstream enterprises shut down due to insufficient supply. The United States cannot bypass China to obtain enough goods.

第四个纰谬是低估了中国辞天下经济中的要紧性。更多的半制品生意本色上会匡助中国主导天下经济。问题的要津在于边界。关于上游公司来说，由于其市集边界，中国事决定性的买家。关于下流企业来说，由于其坐褥边界，中国亦然决定性的卖家。这即是为什么当中国因疫情住手经济行径时，未受疫情影响的国度也启动暂停作事。上游企业因枯竭订单而停产，下流企业因供应不及而停产。好意思国无法绕过中国取得敷裕的商品。

Therefore, the biggest mistake is to believe that US capital will allow the US to decouple from China.

因此，最大的纰谬是治服好意思国老本将允许好意思国与中国脱钩。

新加坡网友KokHin Thong的回话

This may harm the Chinese economy, but in the long run, the harm to the US economy will be multiple.

这可能会挫伤中国经济，但从永远来看，对好意思国经济的挫伤将是多重的。

Firstly, China is the world's largest market. China is the world's largest consumer of entertainment, automobiles, electronics, appliances, services, food, energy, technology, infrastructure, finance, and more! Removing China from the US economy means that China will retaliate and drive American companies out of China. You see, the growth of GDP in the United States is largely due to the growth of the stock market. When a large portion of revenue from Forbes 100 companies disappears overnight, it will mean an immediate recession!

首先，中国事天下上最大的市集。中国事全天下最大的文娱、汽车、电子、电器、服务、食物、动力、本事、基础智商、金融等消耗国!把中国从好意思国经济中剔除意味着中国将进行抨击，把好意思国公司赶出中国。你看，好意思国GDP的增长很猛进度上是由于股市的增长，当好意思国福布斯100强公司的一大块收入通宵之间隐匿机，这将意味着立即零落!

Secondly, the United States will lose its international market share.

其次，好意思国将失去其国际市集份额。

The growth of American companies over the past 30 years is mainly attributed to the benefits brought by China's manufacturing industry. American companies have a huge business presence in China, while Chinese companies do not have the same footprint in the United States. They only produce products and then label them with American brands. This can represent a nearly 9-fold markup. Imagine if the United States withdrew from China and left their technology to the Chinese people. They can produce identical products. They can earn huge profits by establishing their own brand. They will surpass the United States internationally.

好意思国企业畴昔30年的增长，主要归功于中国制造业带来的公正。好意思国公司在中国有弘大的业务，而中国公司在好意思国莫得一样的萍踪。他们仅仅坐褥居品，然后在居品上贴上好意思国品牌的标签。这可代表近9倍的涨价。念念象一下，若是好意思国撤出中国，把他们的本事留给中国东说念主。他们不错坐褥十足调换的居品。他们不错通过建树我方的品牌取得巨大的利润。他们将在国际上独特好意思国。

Thirdly, China has already achieved victory in terms of market share in emerging economies.

第三，中国在新兴经济体的市集份额方面依然取得了到手。

If you have been to countries in Africa or Southeast Asia, you will find that Chinese brands dominate their consumer economy. American companies may have a much larger share in Wet market such as Europe and Japan. But this situation will not continue because once China has sufficient market share in these emerging markets, they will enter Europe and Japan. This has already happened in Latin America.

若是你去过非洲或东南亚国度，你就会发现中国品牌主导着他们的消耗经济。好意思国公司在欧洲和日本等传统市集的份额可能会大得多。但这种情况不会握续下去，因为一朝中国在这些新兴市集领有敷裕的市集份额，他们就会向欧洲和日本贫困。这依然在拉丁好意思洲发生了。

So, the only solution is: learn to cooperate with Chinese people and find your own niche! Obviously, no country can do everything well. For example, Luxembourg's dental equipment is world-renowned. If you want to maintain competitiveness, then specialize and do your best.

是以，独一的处罚目标是:学会与中国东说念主相助爱卡汽车论坛新皇冠，找到我方的利基!显然，任何国度齐不行能事事齐好。举例，卢森堡的牙科建立天下闻名。若是你念念保握竞争力，那就专攻并作念到最佳。